It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the source for the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
Per the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
